Will Chinese Companies Import Over 100K NVIDIA B30A Chips by End of 2026?

Chinese authorities have recently signalled little interest in importing NVIDIA H20 chips, mainly on security grounds. The NVIDIA B30A would be a more powerful chip than the H20, and the US government may allow B30As to be exported to China.

My prediction is that there's a 35-45% chance Chinese companies import >100K B30As by end of 2026 if the US government allows B30A exports to China.

Chinese firms placed $16 billion in H20 orders (~1.3M chips) in 2025 despite the H20 being optimised for inference rather than for training. If B30As offer better performance, demand would logically increase.

Three factors reduce the probability. First, Chinese domestic alternatives are emerging. Huawei's Ascend 910C, with only ~60% of H100 performance, represents China's push toward self-sufficiency.

Second, US export controls are reactive and tighten quickly. Even if B30A exports are approved now (late 2025), there's only ~14 months until the end of 2026. The risk of export approval being reversed mid-purchase will create hesitation, so firms may prefer stockpiling existing H20s or investing in domestic alternatives rather than betting on sustained B30A access. And third, China has signalled little interest in H20s because of security concerns. B30As' superior training capabilities may overcome security objections that applied to inference-focused H20s. These concerns about backdoors or supply chain vulnerabilities could be genuine. B30As are more powerful, so they might face even stronger internal resistance from Chinese authorities prioritising technological sovereignty over performance gains.

The 100K threshold is significant but achievable because it's only 7.5% of the 1.3M H20 order size. If B30As are approved and Chinese firms believe access will last through 2026, they'll likely hit this threshold. But the combination of a compressed timeline, domestic alternatives, regulatory risk, and strategic caution keeps my estimate below 50%. How this plays out will test whether export controls can effectively manage AI chip flows while China simultaneously builds domestic alternatives.